Climate change is making extreme weather worse. It tripled the risk of Hurricane Harvey’s record rainfall over Texas in 2017. It made Australia’s devastating wildfires in 2019 and 2020 at least 30 percent more likely. And it made a heat wave that ravaged the Pacific Northwest in 2021 at least 150 times more likely.
These are all findings of scientific studies. But how do scientists figure out how much climate change is to blame for any given weather event?
A variety of methods can help answer that question. This type of work is known as extreme event attribution.
One common method compares two versions of the world. The first is the real world — where humans burning fossil fuels have caused global warming. The second is what the world would look like without climate change. Scientists estimate what that second world would look like based on historical weather data and climate models.
With some clever number-crunching, researchers can see how likely or severe a weather event is in each of those versions of the world.
Hundreds of studies have probed the role of global warming in natural disasters. Many have found that climate change made extreme weather worse. In some cases, studies have shown that a specific weather event would have been almost impossible without climate change. One example is a brutal heat wave that struck Siberia in 2020. That year, Siberia saw temperatures around 30° Celsius (86° Fahrenheit). It would usually have been closer to freezing at that time of year.
This type of research highlights how climate change is already impacting our daily lives. It also offers clues about the types of weather people should prepare for as the world keeps warming.
Want to know more? We’ve got some stories to get you started:
Explainer: What is attribution science? This relatively new field of research is looking into what might explain extreme weather events. (7/30/2019) Readability: 7.1
Siberian heat wave that caused an oil spill made more likely by climate change Extreme temperatures from January to June 2020 led to wildfires and thawing permafrost. (8/13/2020) Readability: 8.3
Climate change drove Australian wildfires to extremes The region’s warming climate boosted wildfire risk in the region by at least 30 percent. (4/29/2020) Readability: 8.0
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Carbon Brief catalogs every attribution study done to date. On their website, you can find a map of weather events around the world that scientists have investigated through attribution science. Explore weather events by year, type of weather and if researchers found that climate change played a role in an event. What trends do you notice?
Power Words
More About Power Wordsattribution: See attribution science (if it's related to weather or climate).
climate: The weather conditions that typically exist in one area, in general, or over a long period.
climate change: Long-term, significant change in the climate of Earth. It can happen naturally or in response to human activities, including the burning of fossil fuels and clearing of forests.
data: Facts and/or statistics collected together for analysis but not necessarily organized in a way that gives them meaning. For digital information (the type stored by computers), those data typically are numbers stored in a binary code, portrayed as strings of zeros and ones.
fossil fuel: Any fuel — such as coal, petroleum (crude oil) or natural gas — that has developed within the Earth over millions of years from the decayed remains of bacteria, plants or animals.
global warming: The gradual increase in the overall temperature of Earth’s atmosphere due to the greenhouse effect. This effect is caused by increased levels of carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons and other gases in the air, many of them released by human activity.
hurricane: A tropical cyclone that occurs in the Atlantic Ocean and has winds of 119 kilometers (74 miles) per hour or greater. When such a storm occurs in the Pacific Ocean, people refer to it as a typhoon.
model: A simulation of a real-world event (usually using a computer) that has been developed to predict one or more likely outcomes.Or an individual that is meant to display how something would work in or look on others.
Pacific: The largest of the world’s five oceans. It separates Asia and Australia to the west from North and South America to the east.
risk: The chance or mathematical likelihood that some bad thing might happen. For instance, exposure to radiation poses a risk of cancer. Or the hazard — or peril — itself. (For instance: Among cancer risks that the people faced were radiation and drinking water tainted with arsenic.)
Siberia: A region in northern Asia, almost all of which falls within Russia. This land takes its name from the language of the Tatar people, where Siber means sleeping land. This region is vast. It has become famous for its long, harsh winters, where temperatures can fall to −68° Celsius (−90° Fahrenheit).
Texas: The second largest state in the United States, located along the southern border with Mexico. It is about 1,270 kilometers (790 miles) long and covers an area of 696,000 square kilometers (268,581 square miles).
weather: Conditions in the atmosphere at a localized place and a particular time. It is usually described in terms of particular features, such as air pressure, humidity, moisture, any precipitation (rain, snow or ice), temperature and wind speed. Weather constitutes the actual conditions that occur at any time and place. It’s different from climate, which is a description of the conditions that tend to occur in some general region during a particular month or season.
About Maria Temming
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Maria Temming is the Assistant Managing Editor at Science News Explores. She has bachelor's degrees in physics and English, and a master's in science writing.
